Why polling on Bidenomics is still shaky

It's disposable income. It's disposable income. It's disposable income.

A 49% plurality of Americans say they are financially worse off since Joe Biden took office, compared to a mere 18% who say they are better off, according to a recent Financial Times poll.

How can we explain this? Here is one theory: when Joe Biden took office in 2021, real disposable income was at an all time high because of government assistance during the Covid pandemic. This graph tells that story:

When the government started sending out checks during the first days of Covid, this reminded people that it can do way more to help them than it usually does. It would not be surprising if a lot of Americans are still holding Biden to that standard, and are thus predictably frustrated that their disposable income hasn’t returned to previous levels.

This explanation is so logical and attractive that I am honestly shocked anyone would bother to dispute it. As Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder notes, comparing the present economy to its state during the transition is a classic way of evaluating presidents, so it’s not surprising that a lot of Americans would bookend the comparison in this way. And the impact that disposable income has on perceptions of the economy is obvious; this is a perfectly good indicator to look at when we are trying to find explanations for those polling numbers.

I bring this up simply because these polling numbers have prompted more arguments in the discourse about Bidenomics. And once again, Democratic loyalists are pretending that Americans have no legitimate complaints about the economy — and that no one has made the specific case I’ve laid out here. In fact, “it’s disposable income, stupid” is a point the left has been making for quite some time now, and one that Biden hardliners have yet to provide a real answer to. So here I am, setting it out once again as concisely as I possibly can.