I’ll be brief about this because the data speaks for itself. Economists like Kyla Scanlon have claimed that public opinion about Biden’s economy was lower than expected because it was being driven down by negative “vibes” on social media. Until now, this conclusion has generally relied on anecdotal evidence and conjecture.
But over the past week, I realized that one can use Cooperative Election Study data from 2023 to test the theory. That’s because the CES 2023 asked nearly 19,000 Americans two crucial questions:
In the last day did you, on social media, post a story, photo, or video about politics; post a comment about politics; read a story or watch a video about politics; follow a political event; or forward a story, photo, video, or link about politics to friends?
Would you say that over the past year the nation’s economy has gotten much better, somewhat better, stayed the same, gotten somewhat worse, or gotten much worse?
This sets up a simple comparison: did people who used social media to engage with politics tend to have a better or worse view of the economy than those who did not? Here’s the answer:
You can just eyeball it and see the difference. Among people who did not use social media, a margin of 52% of users said that the economy was had gotten worse; but among those who did use social media, only a margin of 26% said it was worse.
It’s hard to imagine a clearer refutation of the “vibecession” theory than this — at least the version that blames social media. Whatever turned people against the Biden economy in 2023, it demonstrably was not social media. If anything, the data suggests the exact opposite: that social media improved popular views of the economy.